Grain Sorghum

Grain sorghums include milo, kafir, durra, feterita, and kaoliang. Grain sorghums are tolerant of drought by going into dormancy during dry and hot conditions and then resuming growth as conditions improve. Grain sorghums are a staple food in China, India, and Africa but in the US they are mainly used as livestock feed. The two key US producing states are Texas and Kansas, each with about one-third of total US production. US sorghum production has become more popular with the breeding of dwarf grain sorghum hybrids which are only about 3 feet tall (versus up to 10 feet tall for wild sorghum) and are easier to harvest with a combine. The U.S. sorghum crop year begins September 1.

Prices – Grain sorghum prices (No. 2 yellow in Kansas City) in 2003 were on track to average above $4 per hundred pounds, the highest level since 1997/8 when prices averaged $4.18.

Supply – World production of sorghum in 2003/4 was forecast to rise to 53.730 million metric tons, up 4.5% from 51.403 million in 2002/3. World ending stocks in 2003/4 are forecasted at 3.864 million metric tons, up 18% from 3.281 million in 2002/3. The world’s largest producers of grain sorghum in 2002/3 were the US with 9.392 million metric tons of production (accounting for 18% of world production), Nigeria with 7.850 million metric tons (15%), India with 7.060 million (14%), and Mexico with 6.338 million (12%). US production in 2003/4 was forecast at 10.446 million metric tons, up 11% from 9.392 million in 2002/3. US ending stocks in 2003/4 are forecasted to rise to 1.378 million metric tons from 1.093 million in 2002/3.

Demand – World consumption of grain sorghum was forecast to rise slightly by 0.4% to 53.147 million metric tons in 2003/4 from 52.949 million in 2002/3. Forecasted consumption of 53.147 million metric tons in 2003/4 will be slightly below forecasted production of 53.730 million in 2003/4, a slightly bullish factor for prices. In 2002/3, consumption of 52.949 million was well above production of 51.403 million, a bearish factor for prices. The world’s main consumers of sorghum are Mexico, Nigeria, and India.

Trade – World trade in grain sorghum was forecast to rise to 6.205 million metric tons in 2003/4 from 5.849 million in 2002/3. The world’s main exporter by far is the US. US exports are forecasted to rise to 5.200 million metric tons from 4.911 million in 2002/3, accounting for 84% of world exports. The U.S. generally consumes only about half its production and exports the balance. The world’s two main importers are Mexico and Japan.