Rye

Rye is a cereal grain and a member of the grass family. Hardy varieties of rye have been developed for winter planting. Rye is most widely grown in northern Europe and Asia. In the US, rye is used as an animal feed and as an ingredient in bread and some whiskeys. About a third of the total supply is used as livestock feed, another third as a foodstuff, and the balance as seed and for whisky. The major producing states are North and South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Georgia. The crop year runs from June to May.

Supply – World rye production was forecasted to drop sharply to 14.438 million metric tons in 2003/4, down 30% from 20.599 million in 2002/3. The drop in production should be spread fairly evenly across the major producers, but production in Russia (the world’s largest producer) is expected to plunge by 41% to 4.200 million in 2003/4 from 7.150 million in 2002/3. World rye stocks are forecasted to plunge 52% to 4.013 million metric tons in 2003/4 from 8.327 million in 2002/3.

The world’s largest producers of rye in 2002/3 were Russia with 7.150 million metric tons of production (accounting for 35% of world production), the European Union (4.718 million or 23%), and Poland (3.822 million or 19%). US rye production in 2003/4 was forecast to rise sharply by 33% to 235,000 metric tons from 177,000 in 2002/3, but that still represents only 1.6% of world production.

Demand – World rye consumption in 2003/4 was forecast at 18.752 million metric tons, significantly higher than the forecasted production of 14.438 million, a bullish factor for rye prices. In 2002/3, consumption of 20.253 million metric tons was just slightly below production of 20.599 million. The world’s largest consumers of rye are Russia with 6.150 million metric tons of consumption (or 30% of world consumption), the European Union (4.454 million or 22%), and Poland (4.100 million or 20%). US consumption in 2003/4 was forecast to rise by 2.5% to 331,000 metric tons from 323,000 metric tons in 2002/3.

Trade – World trade in rye in 2003/4 was forecast to fall sharply by 39% to 985,000 metric tons from 1.604 million in 2002/3. There were only three regions with rye exports of consequence in 2002/3 – the European Union with 800,000 metric tons of exports (accounting for 50% of world exports), Russia (414,000 metric tons or 26%), and the Ukraine (265,000 metric tons or 17%). US exports of rye are forecasted at a negligible 5,000 metric tons in 2003/4, up from 2,000 in 2002/3 but accounting for less than 1% of world trade. The world’s main rye importers are Japan with 414,000 metric tons in 2002/3 (accounting for 26% of world imports), the European Union with 350,000 (22%), and the US with 109,000 (7%). US imports of rye in 2003/4 are forecasted to fall by 8% to 100,000 metric tons from 109,000 in 2002/3. The US imports about one-third of its rye consumption needs.